The demand for goods and services in NSW, and the associated logistics task, are growing faster than the population. We need to ensure the capacity and efficiency of the freight transport network keeps pace with this increasing demand, and that the growth is sustainable for the long term prosperity of the State.
Current and forecast freight task
In 2011 (the NSW Strategic Freight Model base year), the volume of freight moved on the NSW transport network was 409 million tonnes. Mining products account for almost half of this total due to the high volumes generated by the coal industry (about 170 million tonnes per annum), followed by manufacturing products such as steel and wine.
By 2031, the volume of freight to be moved in NSW is expected to be about 794 tonnes. Coal is expected to remain the State’s single largest freight task, followed by manufactured products.
The forecast growth in coal over the next two decades is estimated at four per cent per annum, taking it to 370 million tonnes a year by 2031. All other commodities except agriculture are assumed to grow by three per cent per annum. Our model assumes that growth for agricultural freight movements is modest at one per cent per annum.
Containerised freight through Port Botany has grown at over seven per cent for the past 10 years, with a record 2.29 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) moving through the port in 2015. By 2040, container throughput at Port Botany is set to triple to 7 million TEU.
Share of the freight task by sector and volume 2011
Share of the freight task by sector and volume 2031